On the cusp of an event for the Windows 8 app store, one research firm has dealt a painful blow to the forthcoming OS.
“Windows 8 will be largely irrelevant to the users of traditional PCs, and we expect effectively no upgrade activity from Windows 7 to Windows 8 in that form factor,” research firm IDC told Computerworld this week.
I hate to follow up that statement with a simple “ouch.” But let me say it anyway – ouch!
For its part, Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) has been quite vocal about its goals for Windows 8, which primarily involve the tablet market. Microsoft, like most of the world, assumes that tablets – which are already encroaching on the desktop PC and laptop markets – will one day become the dominant player in personal computing. Personally, I do not think it will be quite that simple. Instead, I expect a wise manufacturer to combine the perfect tablet with the perfect laptop and make a computer no one can live without. It hasn’t happened yet, but we’re getting closer every day.
(Verizon’s making moves against Google and Netflix – read more here.)
Still, for Microsoft to sacrifice Windows 8′s success on the PC just for the sake of tablet sales would be silly. According to Computerworld, Windows 7 has been licensed 450 million times. That’s enormous! The only way Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) could ever top that number is if it licensed Mac OS to third-party PC manufacturers. But that will never (and should never) happen.
For new PC buyers, Windows 7 is still a fairly new OS. But Windows Vista proved to be so bad (and so draining to weak hardware) that people were eager to upgrade. Windows 7 also had the benefit of coming out at a time when laptops had finally reached a nice balance between cost, performance, and durability. Whereas in the past you could spend upwards of $1,000 for a decent Windows XP laptop, the average high-quality Windows 7 laptop retails for $700 to $900. And because Windows 7 machines tend to have at least two gigs of ram, a much larger hard drive, and a vastly superior dual-core processor, their functional value should last a little longer.
In my own personal experience, dual-core processor laptops tend to hold up better after three years of use (2008 to 2011) than laptops with a single-core processor (2005 to 2008).
Unfortunately for Microsoft, this could mean that there will be fewer consumers buying new laptops when Windows 8 arrives than there were when Windows Vista and Windows 7 were released.
However, I am not convinced that IDC’s assessment is accurate. Will the Windows 8 upgrade rate be lower than Windows 7? Probably. From a consumer standpoint, and especially a business standpoint, Windows 8 may not provide enough of a difference to justify a purchase. The layout is cool and inspired, and it may very well be an important step in the Windows evolution. But that’s true of XP, one of the better versions of the software. But did everyone upgrade to XP when it was released? Nope. Did everyone need to make the switch? Nope.
That is the bigger challenge Microsoft faces: convincing us that Windows 8 is must-own software.
Since the company is so determined to make a dent in the tablet market, Microsoft needs to ensure that when Windows 8 is released, there is at least one (preferably several) must-have tablets available. If the company launches a true iPad competitor – or better yet, a true iPad-killer – then there will be very little preventing Windows 8 from attaining long-term success.
“Windows 8 will be largely irrelevant to the users of traditional PCs, and we expect effectively no upgrade activity from Windows 7 to Windows 8 in that form factor,” research firm IDC told Computerworld this week.
I hate to follow up that statement with a simple “ouch.” But let me say it anyway – ouch!
For its part, Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) has been quite vocal about its goals for Windows 8, which primarily involve the tablet market. Microsoft, like most of the world, assumes that tablets – which are already encroaching on the desktop PC and laptop markets – will one day become the dominant player in personal computing. Personally, I do not think it will be quite that simple. Instead, I expect a wise manufacturer to combine the perfect tablet with the perfect laptop and make a computer no one can live without. It hasn’t happened yet, but we’re getting closer every day.
(Verizon’s making moves against Google and Netflix – read more here.)
Still, for Microsoft to sacrifice Windows 8′s success on the PC just for the sake of tablet sales would be silly. According to Computerworld, Windows 7 has been licensed 450 million times. That’s enormous! The only way Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) could ever top that number is if it licensed Mac OS to third-party PC manufacturers. But that will never (and should never) happen.
For new PC buyers, Windows 7 is still a fairly new OS. But Windows Vista proved to be so bad (and so draining to weak hardware) that people were eager to upgrade. Windows 7 also had the benefit of coming out at a time when laptops had finally reached a nice balance between cost, performance, and durability. Whereas in the past you could spend upwards of $1,000 for a decent Windows XP laptop, the average high-quality Windows 7 laptop retails for $700 to $900. And because Windows 7 machines tend to have at least two gigs of ram, a much larger hard drive, and a vastly superior dual-core processor, their functional value should last a little longer.
In my own personal experience, dual-core processor laptops tend to hold up better after three years of use (2008 to 2011) than laptops with a single-core processor (2005 to 2008).
Unfortunately for Microsoft, this could mean that there will be fewer consumers buying new laptops when Windows 8 arrives than there were when Windows Vista and Windows 7 were released.
However, I am not convinced that IDC’s assessment is accurate. Will the Windows 8 upgrade rate be lower than Windows 7? Probably. From a consumer standpoint, and especially a business standpoint, Windows 8 may not provide enough of a difference to justify a purchase. The layout is cool and inspired, and it may very well be an important step in the Windows evolution. But that’s true of XP, one of the better versions of the software. But did everyone upgrade to XP when it was released? Nope. Did everyone need to make the switch? Nope.
That is the bigger challenge Microsoft faces: convincing us that Windows 8 is must-own software.
Since the company is so determined to make a dent in the tablet market, Microsoft needs to ensure that when Windows 8 is released, there is at least one (preferably several) must-have tablets available. If the company launches a true iPad competitor – or better yet, a true iPad-killer – then there will be very little preventing Windows 8 from attaining long-term success.
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